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Can economic sanctions be successfully fought by currency measures? A study by the example of western sanctions on Russia

  • Номер работы:
    368557
  • Раздел:
  • Год добавления:
    22.09.2015 г.
  • Объем работы:
    41 стр.
  • Содержание:
    Table of content
    Executive Summary 3
    Introduction 4
    History of the Russian Rubel 6
    Emergence of money in Russia 6
    Development and changes of the monetary system in Russia 9
    Macroeconomic situation: structural slowdown 11
    The economic consequences of the annexation of Crimea 11
    Sanctions and counter-sanctions have turned a slowdown in stagflation 14
    Gold in world economy 17
    The impact of western sanctions on the flow of capital 17
    Backing ruble with gold 19
    Scenarios for the Russian economy amid western sanctions and falling gold prices 25
    Quantitative assessment of the effect of western sanctions 25
    Mobilization scenario 26
    Conclusion 37
    Recommendation 39
    Bibliography 41
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    Executive Summary

    After the emergence of geopolitical tensions in the advanced economies have imposed a number of sanctions against Russia. The first sanctions were directed against specific individuals, groups of individuals and companies and provided for the imposition of restrictions on travel and business operations, as well as the freezing of their assets. Then it was followed by sanctions against the defense, energy and financial sectors of Russia. In August, Russia has retaliated by banning food imports from European countries. Sanctions and counter-measures have had a major impact on the economy through three channels. First, large-scale capital outflow caused an increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market and a significant depreciation of the national currency. Second, the financial sanctions have restricted access to international financial markets for some Russian banks and companies and significantly increased the cost of foreign borrowing for the rest. Finally, the continued decrease in the level of business and consumer confidence regarding the prospects for future growth, which caused a further decline in consumer and investment activity. In addition, the sanctions began to affect the turnover. International experience shows that sanctions can last for a long period of time.
    The aim of the present study is to answer the question: Can economic sanctions be successfully fought by currency measures? A study by the example of western sanctions on Russia.
    I paid special attention to the study gold standard of the ruble in terms of Western sanctions.
    Introduction

    Stable currency was known in history. This is a fairly familiar «gold standard». In the system of the gold standard never was strong or weak currencies. Each currency was tied to gold and banknotes could be exchanged for gold upon demand of their holders. The reduction of the gold content of the currency is called a devaluation, was rare, and was perceived negatively by the holders of that currency as a withdrawal of the state from its obligations.
    Russia's international reserves declined during 2014-2015. The reason was the sharp decline of the ruble caused by falling oil prices.
    To compensate for the devaluation of the ruble, the Central Bank was forced to make active currency interventions, mass selling of foreign currency. Thus, the Central Bank boosted the demand for the ruble in the foreign exchange market.
    Despite the efforts of the Central Bank, the ruble continues to rapidly cheaper. Since October 2013, the Russian national currency has depreciated against the dollar by 23.5%, to Euro - by 16.5%. In world practice, the devaluation of the national currency by more than 20% over 12 months is considered a currency crisis.
    Note that in conditions of high dependence of Russia on import of technologies, equipment, drugs and many foods sharp devaluation of the ruble leads to higher prices for imported products, and a reduction in the profitability of many industries in Russia. In fact, the process of depreciation of savings, salaries and pensions.
    ......
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